U.S. job growth was overstated by 79,000 in the year through March, BLS says

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The preliminary figure is well below a Bloomberg survey median that had called for a 183,000 upward revision

A sign at a NYS Department Of Labor job fair at the Downtown Central Library in Buffalo, New York, US, on Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025. (Lauren Petracca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual preliminary benchmark revision on Friday, estimating that total nonfarm employment for the year through March 2026 was overstated by 79,000, or 0.1%.

The revision to total private employment was larger, at negative 178,000, also 0.1%, according to the BLS. A final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates when the January 2027 Employment Situation report is published in February 2027. Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on the preliminary figures.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected payrolls to be revised up by 183,000, according to Bloomberg. Prior to Friday's report, official data showed that employers had posted a net gain of 211,000 jobs over the 12 months ending in March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, working out to roughly 17,600 per month. The preliminary revision puts average monthly job growth closer to 11,000.

The markdown in private payrolls was driven by softness in sectors including retail trade, education and health services, manufacturing, and business services. Employment in transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and construction increased, while government payrolls were also revised higher.

With Friday's release, preliminary benchmark revisions have now pushed employment estimates lower in seven out of the last eight years.

Every year, the BLS reconciles its payrolls figures against the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages — a dataset rooted in state unemployment insurance filings that captures virtually the entire U.S. workforce and is considered more comprehensive, though it reaches the public with a significant lag, the agency said.

The U.S. labor market has been showing signs of strain. The economy shed 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, reversing a revised 20,000-job gain in June and coming in well below the 34,000 average monthly gain over the preceding 12 months. Job losses that month were concentrated in local government education, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, and financial activities, while the BLS also revised May and June figures down by a combined 103,000 jobs.

The annual absolute average revision over the past 10 years has been 0.2% of total nonfarm employment, the BLS said.

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