Bloomberg Intelligence says China will lead AI models and 7 other tech sectors by 2030

Free daily briefing on global business news.

Global business news for a smarter world

The report says the U.S. and China are on track for joint AI leadership, while Bloomberg Economics sees China's GDP growth slowing to 3.6%

NurPhoto / Getty Images

Bloomberg Intelligence predicts China will lead the world in large language models by 2030 and be ahead in eight of 17 key industries, according to Bloomberg. Analysts led by Francis Chan said in a Wednesday report that China will, at a minimum, be a credible competitor in all other technologies considered strategically vital.

Chinese firms that produce the equipment AI runs on, from semiconductors to optical networking gear, mostly trail their rivals. The analysts expect them to be competitive by 2030. They wrote that China will narrow its chip-technology deficit but stop short of becoming fully self-sufficient.

"The U.S. and China are on track for joint technology leadership in AI by 2030, with neither country likely to achieve overall supremacy," the report said. American models may stay slightly ahead at the frontier, but China's skill at optimizing software gives it an edge in cheaper AI deployment, the analysts wrote.

The study forecasts that China will top the world in each of its three new-energy segments, among them electric vehicles and energy storage, as well as in biopharma manufacturing. China is out in front in making humanoid robots and in certain areas of shipbuilding. It has matched the U.S. in research and development spending.

The analysts said these strengths will not rescue China's economy from a slowdown. Bloomberg Economics forecasts that annual GDP expansion will come in at an average of 3.6% across the next decade, compared with 5.2% over the past three years. "AI and automation can mitigate pressure from a shrinking workforce and weaker property activity but are unlikely to reverse the long-term slowdown on their own," the analysts wrote.

China's AI companies are struggling to make money from their products. They "remain locked in a race to the bottom, with profit set to remain elusive until companies adopt a more rational approach to pricing," the analysts wrote, according to Bloomberg. They said coming revisions to benchmark equity indexes such as the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has underperformed the global AI trade, could lift the index's growth outlook and widen its holdings in cutting-edge hardware, artificial intelligence and robotics.

Trade friction with the U.S., Europe and other partners will remain an obstacle. Export curbs and market closures could shut Chinese firms out of markets or cut off cutting-edge components. The analysts wrote that such restrictions "are more likely to fragment the geography of its industrial expansion than stop it outright."

Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Robert Lea said earlier this month that top Chinese AI systems scored roughly 3% below their U.S. rivals on benchmark tests, according to Arabian Post. The gap stood at roughly 9% in May and at 15% at an earlier point in the year, according to Arabian Post. The narrowing came after DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash model was released in September, according to Arabian Post.

Join 500,000+ readers who start their day with Quartz.

By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.